James F. Gauss, Ph.D.
June 6, 2022
The next inflation indicator or CPI (Consumer Price Index) is due to be released this Friday. Whatever it is, it will be misleading and false. On May 11 we were told that the 12-month CPI in April was 8.3%. However, if you look at the items within the index that affect most hardworking Americans, a different story emerges. According to the index, “food at home” cost rose 10.8%. Most observant food shoppers would vehemently dispute that figure. I know I would.
Last October we bought several nice New York Strip steaks at $4.99/pound. Yes, they were on sale, no, they were not spoiled, but freshly cut. Normal price then was $7.99. Today that cut goes for $12.99 or close to $15/pound in some stores. One could buy a loaf of bread a few months ago for under $4, but now that same loaf is over $5. At the end of last year a pound of ground chuck (the greasy, “80% lean” meat) went for $3.99. Now it is mostly near $6/pound. A dozen eggs, once as low as $1.29 are now more than twice that much. So, the “food at home” CPI increase does not truly reflect what consumers are experiencing.
Within May’s CPI was an overall energy cost increase of 30.3%. This included the very painful rise of gasoline by 43.6% (higher in certain “Blue” states). Energy services were up 13.7%, but propane used by many rural homeowners and restaurants, was up 38.9%. If you were in the market for a vehicle you experienced sticker shock of 13.2% increase for new ones and 22.7% for used vehicles. So, the CPI, whatever it is, does not reflect what most Americans are experiencing in day-to-day price increases. And, it is going to get worse, much worse.
Some observers, myself included, believe America is headed for food and fuel supply and insecurity that the nation has not realized since the Great Depression. This will not be a “temporary” issue as the Biden Administration would like everyone to believe. Much of it is self-inflicted wounds by ill-advised decisions, whether intentional or just politically stupid. Just about every decision the current administration has made has either created or exacerbated an already troubling situation for the U.S. economy. No, Putin and the Russia-Ukraine war did not create the problem. President Biden and the whole political cabal did.
However, it is just not the disastrous political moves that has brought this upon the U.S. populous. Catastrophic trade decisions over the decades that have moved a lot of our nation’s food and fuel supply abroad, much of it to countries that are hostile to the United States. Historic mega droughts in the western half of the U.S. that put much of the nation’s food production at risk. Serious wheat production issues in Canada and the Upper Midwest which supply much of the U.S. winter wheat for bread and other grains for livestock and human consumption.
Growing up in northern New Jersey during the 1940s and 1950s I remember stories of and seeing dozens and dozens of World War II-era ships anchored in the Hudson River that were repositories for the nation’s grain reserves in case of an emergency. According to the USDA report of March 31, 2022, Durum wheat reserves (think bread) were 37% lower than the 12 months. According to some estimates, the nation’s grain reserves will last less than a month, if needed. Yes, the war in Ukraine will complicate the world’s food needs. Unfortunately, there are food production shortages and failures happening all over the globe.
Multiple boats in the water in an unknown location, possibly in the Hudson River, 1947. (Photo: New York State Archive).
In the United States, our food chain will be seriously impacted by delivery, as well as the cost of production and processing. Already thousands of truck drivers are idling their rigs because they cannot afford the fuel. Hundreds of small truck operators are suspending their fleets or going out of business. America’s food and consumer product delivery systems are being dismantled. While Biden and team seem unmoved as they trumpet the utopian value of “green” energy—an unmitigated disaster is facing the nation.
Further Complications. Five years ago Saudi Arabia took complete control of Aramco in Port Arthur, TX, America’s largest petroleum refinery. SA is not America’s friend despite the media and Biden Administration hoopla. In addition to America’s hyper-fuel inflation, petroleum byproducts, such as plastics (think just about everything you use at home and work), medications, clothing, cosmetics, and hundreds of other products, will see dramatic price increases.
Also, in the past several months, nearly two dozen food production or food processing facilities have exploded or burned down. Suspicious? Maybe. Whatever the causes, the impact will be the same. Less food production and processing capacity at a critical time for the country.
Climate change is another issue. I will not dispute its occurrence. It has been happening since God’s creation of the planet. What I will dispute is man’s ability to stop it. While man may be able to have a local micro-impact by planting more trees or reducing carbon output, overall the earth will not be significantly changed. We cannot alter the rotation or tilt of the planet, which some scientists believe is occurring. Nor can we greatly change weather patterns, some of which historically have lasted for decades (think of the “dust bowl” years in the U.S.).
Thousands of U.S. farmers are faced with production problems. In addition to weather complications, huge price increases for seed, feed, fertilizer, pesticides, and fuel are forcing many to cut back on their cropping and livestock production plans. Livestock herds and flocks are being culled and sold off prematurely because farmers cannot afford the feed and upkeep. For many, this year could financially break them and put them out of production.
Over the years we have allowed foreign entities and nations, including China, to buy up significant food production acreage of facilities in the U.S. As of the beginning of 2022, foreigners own over 35 million acres of our nation’s land, much of it agricultural or mineral. China controls our nation’s pork production through its acquisition of Smithfield Foods in 2013. China now owns an estimated $2 billion (192,000 acres) of America’s farmland. Brazilian company JBS controls much of the U.S. beef market. Much of America’s food that we once produced is now imported as we chop down orchards and plow under once productive fields for urban sprawl.
Then there is non-agriculturist Bill Gates and his investment group that has become America’s largest private farmland owner at 242,000 acres. Why? Gates is not saying.
Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, in a Fox News Op/Ed today believes we are headed for a food crisis in the United States and have already entered it.
The potential for civil unrest, i.e., riots in the U.S. and elsewhere, natural disasters, wars and rumors of wars will further aggravate the U.S. and world problems of food and fuel supply.
Although the 2022 election may put a few good people in office, it will not readily change what has already been cast in stone by the Biden Administration.
What I really believe is that America is experiencing the outcome of its rejection of God and its rampant embracing of sin, the godless murder of 63 million innocent children and the sexual perversion of the youth that survive and dozens of other middle fingers up God’s nose in defiance of His commandments. We are now paying the price. No man will redeem us. Only God.
If you really want to know what is happening and why, read my book, Revelation 18 and the Fate of America (2021 Edition). There is a way back if we have the fortitude to take it and the Church in America is willing to lead the way.
When I shut up heaven and there is no rain, or command the locusts to devour the land, or send pestilence among My people, if My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land (2 Chronicles 7:13-14).
God is allowing all of this to happen to get our attention. Nothing will change until those who truly know Him (My people . . . called by My name) will fast (humble themselves), pray and repent (turn from their wicked ways) . . . THEN God will hear us, forgive our sin, and heal our land.
UPDATE (June 10, 2022): The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released their May CPI stats today. The overall CPI/Inflation index ticked up to 8.6% for May (year-over-year) from 8.3% in April. This is the highest CPI in over 40 years. However, I believe we have only seen the tip of the iceberg on price increases. Although the “food at home” index ebbed from 10.8% in April to 10.1% in May, other important indices rose significantly. The crucial energy sector continues to be painfully high. Total energy costs rose to 34.6% from 30.3% in April, with gasoline up 48.7% in May, up from 43.6% the previous month. No data was presented on diesel fuel increases, although they generally follow gas increases. These mammoth rises will eventually show up in the cost of all goods and services, including groceries and anything relying on transportation to get to the consumer. In addition, energy services rose significantly from 13.7% to 16.2% (or an 18% one-month increase). Natural gas saw a hefty increase also, from 20.9% to 30.2% in one month, and fuel oil was up an astounding 106.7%, and we are not even close to the heating season. Buckle up! All indicators say it will only get worse from here.
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